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Worldwide vegetable production continues to increase alongside rising demand, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data reported by Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Plants and Protein (UFOP).
Palm and soyabean oils were likely to be significantly more abundant in 2024/25, more than offsetting the decline in sunflower oil, the 22 August report said.
The USDA forecast a 2.7M tonne year-on-year rise in global vegetable oil production in the current crop year to reach a record level of 224.2M tonnes.
With demand also increasing, consumption was estimated at 221.7M tonnes, up 5.3M tonnes on the previous year.
Against this background, ending stocks were expected to be lower than the previous year at 29.6M tonnes and below the long-standing average.
According to research by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, palm oil production is set to reach another record volume in 2024/25. Although the USDA had lowered its earlier forecast of 80M tonnes, the current estimate of 79.8M tonnes was still up 0.8M tonnes on 2023/24 output.
Due to good feedstock supply, soyabean oil availability was likely to increase by just under 3.2M tonnes, reaching a record 65.5M tonnes.
At 34.2M tonnes, rapeseed oil production was also expected to reach a record.
However, the USDA expected sunflower oil production to drop in 2024/25, particularly due to a more than 1M tonne decline in Ukrainian production.
The global sunflower oil forecast was lowered almost 1M tonnes month-on-month to 20.6M tonnes, dropping just under 2M tonnes below the previous year’s volume. This would be the lowest output since 2021/22, the report said.
Although the global supply of vegetable oils for human consumption was secure, the UFOP raised concerns about the large number of ongoing military conflicts in many regions, saying that the resulting supply bottlenecks and famines were exclusively due to political factors.
Source: Oils & Fats International
